Trump’s consistent mindset and his preparation for the ‘final’ battle on Iran

There were plenty of opinions explaining Trump`s true aim after his “fake negotiations” with Iran. One was published by the Financial Times. Alex Barker, for example, shows a striking continuity from the 1980s to today of Trump`s mindset. In the late 1980s, during tensions linked to the Iran–Iraq War and the Strait of Hormuz, Trump argued that the U.S. was being exploited by protecting oil shipments it did not need, that weakness invited humiliation, and that a decisive strike — such as taking key oil infrastructure like Kharg Island — could force Iran to yield. The author’s point is that his mindset has not changed, and Trump still approaches Iran through pressure, leverage, and force.

The article concludes that Trump’s instinct is to simplify crises into a basic negotiating structure: incident → deadline → response. It further argues that he assumes “the party willing to use the most power will prevail”. In his framing, Trump’s behavior is interpreted primarily as a continuation of a long-standing coercive logic, rooted in escalation and the belief that credible threats will produce compliance. But his conclusion is incomplete because it ignores recent developments, which indicate preparation for action. There are specific facts from the last 3–4 days: orders involving forces linked to the United States Marine Corps presence in Japan moving toward the Strait of Hormuz; reporting by the Financial Times that the White House is weighing deployment of ground forces; and approximately 4,500 U.S. troops were en route to the region.

Based on those developments, my conclusion is that Trump is not simply reducing the situation to negotiation tactics, but is gaining time under the cover of negotiations, with the real objective being to prepare for another (surprise) attack on Iran, potentially targeting strategic points (those islands) and create leverage, while at the same time influencing the situation around the Strait of Hormuz and broader oil dynamics. Trump`s mindset, in other words, must be linked to his 2026 National Security Strategy and to his actions and not reduced to his mindset. But his effort will not “save” him from his ‘final’ failure to defeat Iran.

Trump’s Iran playbook was written in the 1980s, Alex Barker, 24 March 2026.