The failure of Washington` and Brussels` strategy with Belgrade and Pristina on the eve of Russia`s “victory” and the dire consequences for Kosovo

The silence of the Western powers in relation to the unjust policies of Vučić for the sake of breaking way Serbia from the Russian “sphere”, not only endangers the European project and has not only created a Serbia with a developed military industry and capable of attacking any neighbor, but also has created the conditions to attack Kosovo after the war in Ukraine comes to an end, even if Kurti applies just policies upon the Serbian minority.

The unjust policies of Kosovo`s prime, such as the ban on the use of the Serbian dinar in the country, without going through a democratic process by informing and approving the practice from the Serbian community, as the West rightly demanded, will simply be used by Serbia to take the north of Kosovo even by war, because it can now use international law, since it has been used by superpowers, even if its economy depends more on the EU than on China or Russia.

Western strategy has created the conditions for another war between Serbs and Albanians, but with Serbia being superior both militarily, economically and geopolitically. The end of the war in Ukraine, with Russia being victorious, can strengthen Belgrade`s goal, not simply to take the north of Kosovo but all of Kosovo, using both the resolution 1244 and the mistakes of Pristina, especially those of Kurti or any “Kurti” after him, but also the international law related to “special military operations”, if in the following months Albania and western countries do not ask Serbia to apologize for its crimes, to recognize the independence of Kosovo and to remove it from the constitution.

For all three of these goals, coordination and a long time is needed, at least six months, if Vucic is forced to propagate it to the people. Otherwise, with Russia`s victory in Ukraine and the consequences it will have in Europe, there is no possibility that Serbia will apologize, recognize Kosovo and remove it from the constitution. On the contrary, it will be encouraged and advance its goal, even by using military power.       

Western elites are certainly aware of the consequences of Russia`s “victory” in Ukraine and they know very well that it would be devastating for them. The foreign minister of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, recognized that “awareness” for the BBC (Hard Talk). This was one of the main reasons why they organized a meeting in Switzerland (June 16: 2024), because another was, as Kuleba admitted, to force Russia to sit down for talks in “advantageous” geopolitical conditions for Ukraine, since on the military front had failed, otherwise it would face the majority of the international community (about 100 countries and international organizations). But that meeting failed as long as “key” world powers such as Brazil, India, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Thailand, Indonesia, Mexico and the United Arab Emirates did not sign the communique, which recognized the “territorial integrity” of Ukraine, while Russia was not invited and China snubbed the event.

The issue becomes critical if we add the political campaign that is taking place for the presidential elections in the US. It is difficult for the Biden`s administration to find time to exert pressure on Serbia, even if we assume that Tirana and Prishtina move with “lightning” speed and ask Washington to change its strategy, and it is more difficult for Rama and Kurti to understand the geopolitical consequences for our countries with the return of Trump in the White House, even if Rama donate the only island that Albania has, Sazan, to Kushner, in order to “soften” Trump`s stand, when it is well known that he accuses George and Alex Soros (and Sorosists in general) not only for their role in “globalism” as Trump calls it, but also for their role in encouraging the “democrats” to prosecute him, culminating with their last “advice” to call him publically a “convicted felon” after the New York court found him guilty. 

These and other similar consequences for Albanians do not seem to have been understood by Brussels` bureaucrats and Biden`s “emissaries” (O'Brien etc.), and our people continue to live with illusions or false impressions created by Tirana`s and Prishtina`s mass media where criticism is censored. The consequence of their censorship is that the Albanian people are not even aware of the strategy I outlined about six years ago for Tirana and Prishtina to use against Belgrade (in order to use it either in parallel with the American strategy or only in case that they see that there would be no progress), nor about Belgrade`s strategy and the failure of a “counter-strategy” that began to take shape after the attack in Banjskë.

Vučić has understood the geopolitical aim of the West and therefore “plays” with it as he wishes. Therefore, the claim that he knows how to “play chess” by some people mentioned by the Financial Times, with superpowers, is not correct, because it does not include the goal of Washington and of the EU, but also Russia and China, although much vaguer than the West.

*This is the conclusion of an article published in Albanian on the strategy of Washington and Brussels in relation to Belgrade and Prishtina. In essence, it is part of broader study.

Dështimi` strategjisë së Uashingtonit dhe Brukselit me Beogradin dhe Prishtinën në prag të “fitores” së Rusisë dhe pasojat gjëmëzeza për Kosovën